Exploring Draft Lottery Concepts

By bfaller45 | May 17, 2025

I felt that this needed it’s own blog post and space for discussion, as I’m sure there will be a lot of opinions. Let me start by stating that I don’t think our current system is broken by any means – however, there are some concerns with the balance in our league.

I’m not under the impression that we will ever have league parity, but I do think we could make some changes to discourage full tear-downs. These systems are meant to continue rewarding bad teams with top picks while adding some fun and a touch of randomness.

Option #1: Tiered Lotteries

Objective:

Maintain fairness, discourage tanking, and reward rebuilding while keeping more teams competitive. This option determines draft order by three separate weighted lotteries. Each tier uses different criteria to assign lottery odds.

The primary goal for this option is to encourage teams to keep some players instead of going fully nuclear on their teams during a rebuild. It still incentivizes those going through a true rebuild by preventing middle of the road teams and contenders from getting a top 3 pick.

Tier 1: Picks #1–3 – True Rebuilders

  • Eligibility: The 3 non-playoff teams with the lowest Max Points For (MPF) during the regular season.
  • Method: Weighted lottery among those 3 teams.
  • Why MPF? It reflects roster strength better than win-loss record and reduces the incentive to tank lineups.
  • Odds for Pick #1:
    • 14th in MPF: 50%
    • 13th in MPF: 30%
    • 12th in MPF: 20%

All 3 teams are guaranteed a top-3 pick, and picks #1–3 are drawn based on the above odds.

Tier 2: Picks #4–8 – Remaining Non-Playoff Teams

  • Eligibility: The 5 remaining non-playoff teams not in Tier 1.
  • Method: Ordered by MPF (lowest to highest), with weighted odds applied.
  • Odds for Pick #4:
    • Lowest MPF: 35%
    • 2nd Lowest: 25%
    • 3rd Lowest: 20%
    • 4th Lowest: 15%
    • Highest MPF: 5%

Picks #4–8 are drawn using these odds.

Tier 3: Picks #9–14 – Playoff Teams

  • Eligibility: All 6 playoff teams, regardless of seeding.
  • Method: Lottery odds based strictly on playoff outcome, not regular season or MPF.
  • Odds for Pick #9:
    • Quarterfinal Loser 1: 27%
    • Quarterfinal Loser 2: 27%
    • Semifinal Loser 1: 17%
    • Semifinal Loser 2: 17%
    • Runner-up: 8%
    • Champion: 4%

Picks #9–14 are drawn based on these weights.

Summary:

  • MPF is used for fairness in non-playoff tiers (Tiers 1 & 2).
  • Playoff outcome determines odds in Tier 3.
  • Each tier has a clear system that blends reward and randomness to promote engagement and competitive integrity.

Option #2: Weighted Lottery (Top 2 Picks)

Overview:

This weighted lottery system determines the top 2 picks in the rookie draft and is designed to:

  • Reward poor regular season performance
  • Maintain competitive integrity
  • Incentivize participation in the consolation bracket

Only the 8 non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery.

Lottery Odds Distribution (Total = 100%)

Split into:

  • 80% based on regular season standings (7th–14th place)
  • 20% based on consolation bracket performance (1st–3rd place)

Regular Season Finish (80% of Odds)

  • 14th: 32%
  • 13th: 20%
  • 12th: 12%
  • 11th: 6%
  • 10th: 4%
  • 9th: 3%
  • 8th: 2%
  • 7th: 1%
    Subtotal = 80%

Consolation Bracket Results (20% of Odds)

  • Champion: 10%
  • Runner-Up: 7%
  • 3rd Place: 3%
    Subtotal = 20%

Draft Order Process:

  • Picks #1 and #2 are determined by the lottery using the combined odds above.
  • Picks #3–14 follow inverse regular season standings (excluding teams that win the lottery).
  • The 14th place team is guaranteed a top-3 pick.
  • A team finishing 14th and winning the consolation bracket could have as much as 41% of the total lottery odds.

Summary:
This system rewards teams for poor performance while encouraging participation in the consolation bracket. It adds strategy, keeps the bottom half of the league engaged, and remains simple enough to understand at a glance.